Here are this week’s SWAJ Research Links, compiled by SWAJ Team Member Mark Kurth.
National Inquiries
Why Jan. 6 is a problem for Trump’s campaign
The findings of two polls released this week underscore the risk for the GOP in tapping Trump again, just as Republicans in Iowa and New Hampshire prepare to cast the first votes in the primary contest.
Democrats and independents still hold starkly negative views of Jan. 6, its participants and Trump’s role in stoking the riot. Majorities of Americans overall still believe now-President Joe Biden was elected legitimately, that Trump is guilty of trying to steal the election and that the federal criminal charges in Washington against Trump are appropriate.
Even as surveys generally show Trump running even with the unpopular Biden or leading him narrowly in the horse race, Trump’s refusal to concede the last election and his actions leading up to the Capitol riot are significant liabilities for his candidacy.
Court says even passive members of Jan. 6 mob can be convicted of disorderly conduct
A federal appeals court ruled Friday that Jan. 6 defendants can be found culpable of “disorderly” or “disruptive” conduct inside the Capitol even if they weren’t personally violent or destructive.
The decision is a victory for the Justice Department in cases against hundreds of defendants charged with misdemeanor counts of disorderly and disruptive conduct, one of the staple charges that has been applied to nearly every member of the mob that entered the halls of Congress.
Trump says Civil War ‘could have been negotiated’
Former President Donald Trump on Saturday suggested the Civil War could have been avoided through “negotiation,” arguing that the fight to end slavery in the US was ultimately unnecessary and that Abraham Lincoln should have done more to avoid bloodshed.
“So many mistakes were made. See, there was something I think could have been negotiated, to be honest with you,” Trump said at a campaign event in Newton, Iowa. “I think you could have negotiated that. All the people died. So many people died.”
Special counsel probe uncovers new details about Trump's inaction on Jan. 6: Sources
Many of the exclusive details come from the questioning of Trump's former deputy chief of staff, Dan Scavino, who first started working for Trump as a teenager three decades ago and is now a paid senior adviser to Trump's reelection campaign. Scavino wouldn't speak with the House select committee that conducted its own probe related to Jan. 6, but -- after a judge overruled claims of executive privilege last year -- he did speak with Smith's team, and key portions of what he said were described to ABC News.
Sources said Scavino told Smith's investigators that as the violence began to escalate that day, Trump "was just not interested" in doing more to stop it.
Sources also said former Trump aide Nick Luna told federal investigators that when Trump was informed that then-Vice President Mike Pence had to be rushed to a secure location, Trump responded, "So what?" -- which sources said Luna saw as an unexpected willingness by Trump to let potential harm come to a longtime loyalist.
Trump just promised an authoritarian ‘task force’ to impose Christian ideology
In recent campaign stops and on social media, Donald Trump has reprised lies aimed at inciting his Christian-right base against Joe Biden. These tirades, centered on the false charge that the Biden administration is persecuting Christians, aren’t just Trump’s typically dubious claims. Much like Trump’s lies about a stolen election, they are designed to immerse his loyalists in a grievance-laden alternative reality in which Trump alone can rescue them from an evil government threatening their freedom.
'More important things to be tackled': Voters share their thoughts on potential Biden impeachment
About twice as many of these middle-of-the-road voters – a crucial bloc for both parties in this year’s presidential election – said they oppose rather than support the House GOP’s recent impeachment inquiry, according to a recent poll by USA TODAY and Suffolk University.
Exclusive: It's not the economy, stupid. In NH, democracy is the top issue for Dems, independents
For Democratic and independent voters in New Hampshire this year, the most important issue facing the United States isn't the economy, the sort of kitchen-table quandaries that more often than not determine presidential elections.
It's the future of democracy.
A new USA TODAY/Boston Globe/Suffolk University Poll two weeks before the Granite State's pivotal primary finds half of Democrats (49%) and nearly 3 in 10 independents (29%) rank that solemn and even philosophical question well above such concrete concerns as health care or crime − defying the conventional political wisdom of decades that "It's the economy, stupid."
Takeaways from the appeals court hearing on Donald Trump’s immunity claims
A federal appeals panel expressed deep skepticism Tuesday toward Donald Trump’s argument that he can’t be prosecuted for trying to overturn the 2020 election, raising the potentially extreme implications of absolute presidential immunity.
Trump’s lawyers argued that his federal election subversion indictment should be dismissed because he is immune from prosecution. But the three judges on the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit panel questioned whether this immunity theory championed by Trump’s lawyers would allow presidents to sell pardons or even assassinate political opponents.
Trump’s immunity claim gets frosty reception at appeals court
A federal appeals court panel strongly suggested Tuesday that it would reject Donald Trump’s claims of immunity from criminal charges related to his effort to subvert the 2020 election.
With Trump looking on, the three judges expressed deep skepticism of his contention that a president could not be prosecuted — even for assassinating a rival or selling military secrets — if he were not first impeached and convicted by Congress.
Not MAGA enough: 2020 election skeptic quit his job after facing blowback from angry election deniers
When Bob Bartelsmeyer accepted the job as the elections director of a sprawling rural county in Arizona last spring, it seemed like the perfect move. It was a step up professionally in a place where the Trumpian values of the community matched his own.
After all, Bartelsmeyer, 67, believed the falsehood subscribed to by millions of MAGA Republicans that the 2020 election was stolen from then-President Donald Trump.
But instead of getting a warm reception, Bartelsmeyer got a wakeup call: Not even he – whose social media posts promoted Trump’s claims of election fraud, was equipped to handle the extreme level of distrust in elections felt by residents in this county, which had become an unsettling case study in how democracy in an American county can break down.
Takeaways from the closing arguments in the $370 million Donald Trump civil fraud trial
Trump’s decision to launch into a monologue at the conclusion of his lawyers’ closing arguments reflected the fact that the civil fraud trial is a serious threat to Trump’s business and brand – New York Attorney General Letitia James is seeking to bar Trump from doing business in the state – as well as how Trump is eager to take advantage of the situation as he runs for president.
Judge Arthur Engoron has already found Trump is liable for fraud in the civil case, and he plans to issue a full decision by the end of the month.
Trump shares false claim Haley isn't eligible to be president, returning to racist birther conspiracy
Former President Donald Trump reposted a false report earlier this week claiming incorrectly that former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is ineligible for the presidency because her parents were not yet United States citizens when she was born.
That doesn't matter. Haley was born in 1972 in the United States, automatically making her an American citizen and eligible for the presidency. The Constitution mandates that the president be a natural-born citizen, at least 35 and a resident of the U.S. for 14 years.
But the post marks a new chapter in Trump's use of what's known as "birtherism," a racist conspiracy theory, against a political rival.
Trump lashes out at judge in closing arguments of civil fraud trial
Trump’s courtroom outburst came during a day that began with police responding to a threat at the Long Island home of the judge, Justice Arthur Engoron, and included closing arguments from Trump’s counsel, who called him an “industry expert,” and Attorney General Tish James’ lawyers, who accused him of committing widespread fraud in part to finance his 2016 presidential campaign.
Violent political threats surge as 2024 begins, haunting American democracy
Experts say that acts of physical violence toward officials and politicians since the attack on the U.S. Capitol by a pro-Trump mob on Jan. 6, 2021, remain relatively rare. But they caution that the possibility of harm being inflicted on public servants is already undermining the health of U.S. democracy because the intimidation risks influencing their decision-making.
Officials who have been targeted say they fear that threats could, at any time, tip over into physical violence.
“I am really worried that there is going to be a tragedy,” Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice Jill Karofsky said in an interview. “I believe people when they say that they want to hurt us or kill us. I don’t think they’re idle threats.”
Conservatives unleash rage at Johnson over spending deal
His right flank is furious over a deal on overall spending levels he struck with Democrats — looking to avoid a partial government shutdown that would start next week — that largely resembles the bipartisan agreement former Speaker Kevin McCarthy reached with President Joe Biden last year.
Trump warns of ‘bedlam,’ declines to rule out violence after court hearing
Speaking to reporters after an appeals court hearing in which Trump’s lawyers said he should be immune from prosecution for trying to overturn the 2020 election, Trump claimed without evidence that he was being prosecuted because of polls showing him leading President Biden. He warned that if the charges succeed in damaging his candidacy, the result would be “bedlam.”
States Fights
Sununu says he would vote for Trump if he’s the nominee, even if he’s a convicted felon
New Hampshire Republican Gov. Chris Sununu said Wednesday he would vote for Donald Trump if he’s the GOP nominee – even if he’s a convicted felon.
“I think most of us are all going to support the Republican nominee – there’s no question,” he told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins when asked if he thought the former president has the character to be president again, adding, “We all need (President Joe) Biden to lose.”
Asked if he would vote for Trump if he were the nominee and a convicted felon, Sununu – who has endorsed former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in the primary and has been a critic of the former president – said, “Right now, most of America looks like they would vote for him, because he is winning,” referencing hypothetical general election matchup polling.
Ex-Kentucky official Kim Davis, who denied same-sex marriage licenses, owes over $360,000 after new ruling
Kim Davis, ex-clerk of Rowan County in northeastern Kentucky, became a national figure in 2015 when she defied the US Supreme Court ruling that legalized same-sex marriage. Davis refused to sign marriage licenses to same-sex couples, citing her religious beliefs. At the time, US District Judge David Bunning found her in contempt of court and ordered her to jail, and she spent five days behind bars.
David Ermold and David Moore sued Davis after being denied marriage licenses multiple times by her or her office. In 2022, Bunning ruled Davis violated their constitutional rights, and in September 2023 a jury awarded the couple $100,000 in damages.
Last week, Bunning ruled in favor of the couple on the question of whether Davis should pay attorneys’ fees.
Ohio House overrides DeWine’s veto of bill banning gender-affirming care
The Ohio House of Representatives voted Wednesday to override Gov. Mike DeWine’s veto of a bill targeting gender-affirming care for transgender youths and the participation of transgender girls in middle school and high school sports.
The override of House Bill 68, titled the “Saving Adolescents From Experimentation Act,” passed 65-28, above the three-fifths threshold to overcome a gubernatorial veto. The vote was along party lines and closely mirrored the original vote to pass the measure.