Here are this week’s SWAJ Research Links, compiled by SWAJ Team Member Mark Kurth.
National Inquiries
Trump allegedly discussed sensitive nuclear submarine information with a Mar-a-Lago member
The member is Australian billionaire Anthony Pratt, sources told ABC. A source familiar with the matter confirmed to CNN’s Kaitlan Collins that Pratt, who had a close relationship with Trump when he occupied the Oval Office, was interviewed by the special counsel probing Trump’s retention of classified documents after leaving office. Another source told CNN’s Kristen Holmes that Pratt is on the list of potential witnesses for when the trial begins.
Trump seeks to reassert himself as GOP kingmaker in House speaker fight
“He will be a GREAT Speaker of the House, & has my Complete & Total Endorsement!” Trump wrote on his Truth Social network in a post that spent more time lauding Jordan’s prowess as a student wrestler than his political career.
The Ohio Republican, who is one of the most polarizing figures in Washington and one of Trump’s most loyal attack dogs, is playing a key role in an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden.
‘What Is Broken in American Politics Is the Republican Party’
We asked some of the smartest thinkers and observers of politics and Capitol Hill to weigh in. Something seems broken in American politics — but what is it? Does the dysfunction stem from a sickness in the Republican Party, or is it decay in the institution of Congress? Or is it something else entirely — and is there a way to fix things, so we can return to some semblance of a healthy democracy?
Their responses leaned heavily toward blaming a populist, Trumpian, or even nihilistic turn in the GOP, although others took issue with the premise of the question, arguing that stability in politics isn’t always a sign of health or that American politics may not be as fractured as it seems. Few, though, were optimistic about improvement any time soon.
Jim Jordan, Who's Running For Speaker, Played A Key Role In Trump's 2020 Election Plot
“Jim Jordan knew more about what Donald Trump had planned for Jan. 6 than any other member of the House of Representatives,” former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), who co-chaired the House Select Committee tasked with investigating the insurrection, said in a speech at the University of Minnesota this week.
“Jim Jordan was involved, was part of the conspiracy in which Donald Trump was engaged as he attempted to overturn the election,” she added.
Jordan, who now chairs the House Judiciary Committee, refused to cooperate with the select committee regarding his communications with Trump as the attack was occurring, defying subpoenas for testimony.
Inflation is transforming Wall Street’s thinking about Biden’s economy
Markets have been roiled for weeks as reports have underscored the economy’s resilience. While faster growth usually boosts stocks, in the upside-down world created by high inflation, many investors see it as a sign the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its punishingly high interest rates longer. The bond market is also not immune: A favorable report on job openings this week drove investors to push up rates on long-term U.S. government debt to heights not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis.
Trump’s turn against Israel offers stark reminder of what his diplomacy looks like
Trump criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, lauded Hezbollah militants as “very smart” and sought political gain from the attacks that killed 1,200 people by claiming that if the last election was not “rigged,” he’d be the American president and they’d never have happened.
The ex-president openly admitted a grievance against Netanyahu, complaining he had pulled out at the last minute from joining the US air attack that assassinated Iranian intelligence chief Qasem Soleimani in Iraq in 2020. Trump had previously fumed over the Israeli leader’s perceived disloyalty in recognizing he lost the election.
To end Hamas, Israel may need to grieve first
When I called an Israeli defense analyst this week to talk about the terror visited on her country, I wanted to jump quickly to my questions: How long will Israel’s fight against Hamas last? What will victory ultimately look like? And what happens when the immediate clashes end?
But she had something to share first.
“I just came home from a funeral,” she said, her voice breaking. “It was awful. There aren’t enough slots to hold all the funerals. They’re running out of flowers. There are so many bodies. It’s insane, just insane.”
Trump Watches While His Party Implodes
If Trump is a would-be authoritarian, the House drama shows that he is not the kind who cares much about exercising authority beyond himself. To the contrary, he seemed to regard the turmoil and ritual humiliations — first McCarthy, then Jordan, now Scalise — as a sideshow. In important respects, he is right.
House politics, in both parties, can feel insular and even claustrophobic. That has certainly been on vivid display among Republicans the past couple weeks. The honking insults, the personal rivalries dressed up as matters of principle, the perishable coalitions — they can seem impenetrable and disconnected from the real problems of the wider world.
The generational rift that explains Democrats’ angst over Israel
The Democratic divisions exist among the electorate, too, underscoring the extent to which last week’s attack and the subsequent war that has erupted threatens to split the party’s leaders and loyal voters from the youngest and most liberal parts of its voter base. In the new Economist/YouGov poll, 28 percent of self-identified Democrats said they sympathized with both groups equally, 26 percent said they sympathized more with Israel and 15 percent said the Palestinians.
Age and ideology appear to be driving the split among Democrats.
Among Americans under the age of 30, 25 percent said they sympathize more with Israelis, 19 percent with Palestinians and 25 percent with both equally. The split was similar among those who described their ideology as liberal: 25 percent for the Israelis, 17 percent for the Palestinians and 31 percent said their sympathies were about equal.
Centrist GOP effort to reinstate McCarthy picks up steam after Israel attacks
Calls and texts among GOP members picked up dramatically after news of the attacks reached the U.S. overnight Friday. The message, per one House Republican lawmaker involved in the long-shot effort: “We need to bring back Kevin, immediately.”
Lawmakers are concerned that another drawn out speakership battle will delay action to aid Israel after attacks that sent America’s closest Middle East ally into a state of war. That’s time, these Republicans say, that they don’t have during a major emergency.
Tom Cole: McCarthy’s ‘cuts’ deal with conservatives now void
Cole’s comments are striking because of his stature in the House, seen again last week when as Rules chair, he managed the historic debate in opposition to those wanting to oust McCarthy. The Oklahoma Republican is also vice chair of the funding panel, the second-highest-ranking appropriations post. The fact that he should speak out so directly now could embolden GOP centrists to do the same in the party fight now over who will be the next speaker.
When McCarthy struck the spending deal in June, he was under assault from conservatives angered by the less severe spending caps he had accepted as part of a bipartisan bill negotiated last spring with the White House to avert default.
The sudden about-face stunned many in both parties, and unlike the spending caps in the debt ceiling bill, the new spending targets were never really tested by a full vote in the House. Some details of the deal remain murky even to Republicans on the House Appropriations Committee, and the panel has struggled since to comply and still find support for its bills on the floor.
Harvard student groups issued an anti-Israel statement. CEOs want them blacklisted
The CEOs want the students blacklisted. But some of those students have since distanced themselves from the letter.
“One should not be able to hide behind a corporate shield when issuing statements supporting the actions of terrorists,” Ackman said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter.
If the members support the letter, the names of the signatories “should be made public so their views are publicly known,” Ackman said. The CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management said he wanted to ensure his company and others don’t “inadvertently hire” any students belonging to Harvard groups that signed the letter.
Following a backlash to the statement, some of the student groups have since withdrawn their endorsements.
Trump Is Lying About Another Election Being ‘Stolen’ From Him — The One Still A Year Away
At one campaign event after another, the former president claims that Democrats are already scheming to steal the election from him, and that the only way to stop them is to win so overwhelmingly to make it impossible for them to get away with it.
“We have to stop them from cheating in elections, because if we don’t win this next election, 2024, I truly believe our country is doomed,” Trump said during a particularly dark campaign speech in Waco, Texas, in March.
Americans’ views of the Republican Party and its congressional leaders have worsened amid House leadership crisis
Even then – and with most Americans expressing anger at both parties’ handling of the country’s problems – the public continues to prefer the Republican Party’s leadership to that from the White House: 54% say they have more confidence in Republicans in Congress than in President Joe Biden to tackle the major issues facing the country, while 45% have more confidence in Biden’s leadership, unchanged since this summer.
Half of Americans approve of the removal of Kevin McCarthy as House speaker, 49% disapprove, according to the poll, which was conducted after last week’s vote to depose him from that role. Nearly half, 46%, have an unfavorable view of the now-former speaker, 21% have a favorable view of him and about a third express no opinion. Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz, who brought the motion to vacate that led to McCarthy’s ouster, is also deeply underwater, with 44% holding an unfavorable view of the Republican, and 14% a favorable one and 42% unsure.
Josh Hawley Is Wrong About Israel and Ukraine
There is near-universal support for aiding Israel in the Republican Party, while support for aiding Ukraine is eroding. But the same isolationist-tinged arguments that have been used, unconvincingly, against Ukraine could just as easily be used against Israel.
This is not to say that there aren’t legitimate reasons to want to limit our commitment to Ukraine, or to favor bolstering our most important ally in the Middle East — and a reliable ally for roughly 50 years — over other strategic priorities.
Yet support for Israel, too, would fail by the demagogic standards that have been set for Ukraine funding by certain Republicans.
Religion vs. LGBTQ+ rights: Supreme Court weighs 'conversion therapy' bans for minors
Long discredited and already banned for minors in about half of U.S. states, the practice of using ''treatment'' to make a gay or lesbian person straight has reemerged as the Supreme Court has become more conservative and receptive to appeals dealing with religious freedom. Opponents say the practice can involve electrical shocks and nausea-inducing drugs as well as psychoanalysis and counseling.
Brian Tingley, a licensed family counselor in Washington state, is challenging the state's ban on the practice for people under 18, claiming it violates his free speech and religious rights. The law, he told the Supreme Court this year, "forbids him from speaking, treating his professional license as a license for government censorship."
The real story on Europe’s transgender debate
There is a lot of intentional misinterpretation in the U.S. of what is happening in Europe, and that misinterpretation is happening for ideological and political reasons,” said Kellan Baker, executive director of the Whitman-Walker Institute, which focuses on LGBTQ health policy and research.
Here’s an overview of the state of transgender care in four European countries most often cited by Republican critics of gender-affirming care.
Four attackers break 72-year-old man’s jaw while shouting anti-gay slurs
The police report stated that the attackers confronted the man at the corner of W. 17th St and Ninth Ave in Chelsea around 10:15 p.m. on September 15, the New York Daily News reported. They punched him, kicked him, and yelled, “What are you doing around here, you f**king f***ot?”
As the country inches closer to the 2024 presidential election, it is possible that there will be more crimes like this one. A national civil rights group has warned that hate crimes will likely spike during the election, just as they have during each of the last four presidential elections.
“From the mainstreaming of hate and the failure of social media platforms to adequately address disinformation, the current climate is rife with opportunities for the trend of increased hate to continue into the 2024 election,” stated the report from the Leadership Conference Education Fund (LCEF), “unless action is taken.”
Trump Doral event with Eric Trump will feature a Hitler-promoting antisemite who killed someone
Trump National Doral Miami is scheduled to host a ReAwaken America tour event featuring Eric Trump, Lara Trump, Trump lawyer Alina Habba, and antisemitic fitness influencer Ian Smith this week. Smith has recommended neo-Nazi and pro-Hitler propaganda, shared social media posts denying the Holocaust, suggested the “good guys” didn’t win World War 2, and complained that Jewish people are behind “all of these things that are used to control us” and that more people aren’t questioning why “everybody that” President Joe Biden “surrounds himself with is Jewish.”
Authoritarianism Expert Says Nikki Haley's Trump Comment Means 1 Chilling Thing
Trump’s attack on Milley prompted the top military leader to take “safety precautions” for himself and his family. The comment drew sparse criticism from conservatives, however.
Four-times-indicted Trump remains the 2024 Republican front-runner, polling at around 57%. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is in second with 12%, and Haley is in third with 7%.
Haley has been suggested as a potential running mate for Trump, should he win the nomination. Other potential candidates for the role reportedly include far-right Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.).
In June, Ben-Ghiat predicted Trump will “never leave” if he wins back the White House. “That’s very clear, because like all authoritarians, he needs to get back into power because he’s so corrupt and shut down all investigations,” she wrote at the time, describing the GOP as “an autocratic party operating in a democracy.”
Later, Ben-Ghiat warned Trump should be believed when he threatens to do things like obliterate the civil service and seize total control of government.
States Fights
North Carolina Republicans override governor’s veto on key election law
Democrats and election experts warn the changes risk creating dysfunction in 2024, with Gov. Roy Cooper saying they “could doom our state’s elections to gridlock and severely limit early voting.”
The legislation, he said in his veto of the bill last month, “also creates a grave risk that Republican legislators or courts would be empowered to change the results of an election if they don’t like the winner.”
Republicans contend the bill helps guarantee elections will be run fairly by establishing bipartisan election boards that will take politics out of the process.
What to know about Nick Fuentes, the white supremacist who was just hosted by a major Texas PAC leader
On Sunday, The Texas Tribune published photos of Fuentes at the headquarters of Pale Horse Strategies, where he spent nearly 7 hours on Friday. Pale Horse is owned by Jonathan Stickland, a former state representative who also leads Defend Texas Liberty — a political action committee that two West Texas oil billionaires have used to give millions of dollars to right-wing candidates, including Attorney General Ken Paxton and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick.
The meeting — which has set off a firestorm at the Texas Capitol this week — is Fuentes’ most high-profile, known rendezvous since he dined with former President Donald Trump last year, drawing widespread condemnation. His appearance in Texas comes as antisemitic and racist violence continues to skyrocket in the state and nationally.
Supreme Court skeptical of South Carolina racial gerrymandering claim
Conservative justices, who hold a 6-3 majority, questioned whether civil rights groups that challenged the district had sufficient evidence to show that legislators were focused predominantly on race when they drew the map. The state says its sole goal was to increase the Republican tilt in the district.
With Black voters tending to vote for Democrats, the case raises the question of whether Republicans were targeting them primarily for racial or partisan reasons.
The case has the justices grappling with the impact of their own ruling from 2019 that effectively gave the green light to so-called partisan gerrymandering when it said federal courts have no role in assessing such claims.
Tennessee mayoral candidate accused of refusing to condemn ‘literal Nazis’
Gabrielle Hanson was at a candidates’ forum on 2 October when she received a visit by members of the Tennessee Active Club, a hate group known for promoting white nationalism. Members of the council, referred to as aldermen in Franklin, rebuked Hanson for enabling such hate groups, according to local news station WTVF.
“I’m not going to denounce anybody their right to be whatever it is they want to be – whether I agree with what they do in their personal life or not,” Hanson said in response to her critics.